The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 25, 2025:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.19:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 25, 2025:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.18:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 25, 2025:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of August 21, 2025, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through August 16, 2025, with last value -.22074:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the August 21, 2025 Conference Board press release the LEI was 98.7 in July, the CEI was 114.9 in July, and the LAG was 119.9 in July.
An excerpt from the release:
“The leading economic index for the US decreased just slightly in July,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index. Meanwhile, stock prices remained a key positive support of the LEI. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much lower in July than in June and were the second most positive component of the LEI, after contributing negatively to the index over the previous three months. While the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved slighlty in July—but not enough to avoid triggering the recession signal again. Despite that, The Conference Board does not currently project a recession, though we do expect the economy to weaken in H2 2025, as the negative impacts from tariffs become more visible. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, before slowing in 2026 to 1.3%.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6451.07 as this post is written
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