Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
As seen in the July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 1.03% GDP in 2025, 1.87% GDP in 2026, and 2.04% GDP in 2027.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private (AWHAETP)
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private continues a significant downward progression. This “Average Weekly Hours” measure had a value of 34.2 (Hours) through August 2025 as of the September 5, 2025 update:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.3%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private [AWHAETP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP
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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)
I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.
One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.
Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,499.0 (Thousands) through August 2025, last updated September 5, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -2.9%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS
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Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)
While the Labor Force Participation Rate has limitations as a measure, there are various notable, disconcerting trends that have developed from both a long-term and short-term perspective.
Shown below is this “Labor Force Participation Rate” (with last value of 62.3 Percent through August) last updated September 5, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.6%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been faltering. Shown below is this measure with last value of 35.177 Thousand through August 2025, last updated September 5, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -15.7%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6527.81 as this post is written
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