On September 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Posts Slight Gain, Still Lagging Historically“:
The overall Index edged up slightly by seven points from last quarter to 76, still below its historic average of 83. The modest gain reflects an uptick in CEO plans for capital investment and a marginal increase in their expectations for sales. Additionally, hiring plans remain largely unchanged from last quarter, inching up a couple of points and consistent with a softening labor market.
On August 7, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q3 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 49, up from the previous reading of 34. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEO confidence recovered in the third quarter after collapsing in Q2, but fell short of signaling a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “The improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes between the US and China became less intense and potentially reflects ongoing progress on trade negotiations. All three components of the Measure improved from deep pessimism to near neutral. CEOs’ views on current economic conditions made the sharpest recovery. Their six-month expectations for the economy as a whole and in their own industries also improved. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also recovered but remained in pessimistic territory. Fear of recession within the next 12-18 months eased dramatically, to 36% in Q3 from 83% in Q2.”
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6664.36 as this post is written
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