Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
As seen in the July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 1.03% GDP in 2025, 1.87% GDP in 2026, and 2.04% GDP in 2027.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
Job Openings (JTSJOL)
Job openings (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL]), although still at a high level, have recently declined significantly. This “Job Openings” measure had a value of 7,227 (Thousands) through August 2025 as of the September 30, 2025 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -5.5%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed October 7, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Quits: Total Nonfarm (JTSQUR)
Quits (Quits: Total Nonfarm [JTSQUR]) have recently declined significantly. This measure had a value of 1.9 through August 2025 as of the September 30, 2025 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -5.0%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed October 7, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Total Transportation Services Index (TSITTL)
“Total Transportation Services Index” (TSITTL) is beginning to exhibit weakness as seen in the “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis. Shown below is this TSITTL measure with last value of 130.0 through June, last updated September 10, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.1%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Total Transportation Services Index [TSITTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed October 8, 2025; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TSITTL
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been declining. Shown below is this measure with last value of 33.309 Thousand through August 2025, last updated October 3, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -19.1%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed October 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6735.11 as this post is written
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