The October 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 12, 2025. The headline is “Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a slightly faster pace than they did in July. They now see two more quarter-percentage-point cuts from the current 4% to 4.25% range. That tracks the projections of Fed policymakers, who cut rates a quarter point last month and penciled in two more rate cuts this year amid concerns about the abrupt slowing in job growth.

Economists gave high marks to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even as they predicted that the central bank’s independence is likely to diminish as Trump steps up his efforts to take control of interest rates and install loyalists on its policymaking committee.

Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15 next year, got an A or B from 77% of economists, compared with 80% a year ago.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 33%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 3 – October 9. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2025:  1.66%

full-year 2026:  1.87%

full-year 2027:  2.05%

full-year 2028:  2.09%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2025: 4.45%

December 2026: 4.41%

December 2027: 4.22%

December 2028: 4.12%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2025: 4.15%

December 2026: 4.12%

December 2027: 4.14%

December 2028: 4.13%

CPI:

December 2025:  3.05%

December 2026:  2.64%

December 2027:  2.36%

December 2028:  2.28%

Core PCE:

full-year 2025:  3.05%

full-year 2026:  2.60%

full-year 2027:  2.26%

full-year 2028:  2.15%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6659.09 as this post is written