Total Household Net Worth As Of 2Q 2025 – Two Long-Term Charts

For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2025:Q2).  The last value (as of the September 11, 2025 update) is $176.29290 Trillion:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

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Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 6.1%:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; accessed September 12, 2025; 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TNWBSHNO

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6588.18 as this post is written

Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2025

The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of September 11, 2025 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $7.1 Trillion in Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP.  The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“:

As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk post:

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $176.3 trillion during the second quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.2 trillion.

As one can see in the above chart, the first outsized peak was in 2000, and attained after the stock market bull market / stock market bubbles and economic strength.  The second outsized peak was in 2007, near the peak of the housing bubble as well as near the stock market peak. A third outsized peak appears to have formed between 2021 and 2022.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6587.47 as this post is written

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – September 2025

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.

The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.

As seen in the July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 1.03% GDP in 2025, 1.87% GDP in 2026, and 2.04% GDP in 2027.

Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness

Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:

Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private (AWHAETP)

Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private continues a significant downward progression. This “Average Weekly Hours” measure had a value of 34.2 (Hours) through August 2025 as of the September 5, 2025 update:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.3%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private [AWHAETP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP

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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)

I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.

One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.

Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,499.0 (Thousands) through August 2025, last updated September 5, 2025:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -2.9%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS

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Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)

While the Labor Force Participation Rate has limitations as a measure, there are various notable, disconcerting trends that have developed from both a long-term and short-term perspective.

Shown below is this “Labor Force Participation Rate” (with last value of 62.3 Percent through August) last updated September 5, 2025:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.6%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)

Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been faltering. Shown below is this measure with last value of 35.177 Thousand through August 2025, last updated September 5, 2025:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -15.7%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 9, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA

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Other Indicators

As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6527.81 as this post is written

NFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2025

The August 2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 9, 2025.

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .5 points to 100.8.

Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in August to 100.8, nearly 3 points above the 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, four increased, four decreased, and two were unchanged. The increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed the most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell by 4 points to 93 but remained well above the historical average. The decline was due to a decrease in uncertainty about financing expectations and planned capital expenditures.

Below is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the full August 2025 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6512.61 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – September 8, 2025 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through September 8, 2025 with a last price of 6495.15), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6495.15 as this post is written

Recession Probability Models – September 2025

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve.  I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated September 4, 2025 using data through August 2025) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 28.8466% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.  For comparison purposes, it showed a 28.947% probability through July 2025, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger.  This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on September 2, 2025 currently shows a .80% probability using data through July 2025.

Here is the FRED chart:

Data Source:  Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed September 8, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

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The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts.  For instance, as seen in the July 13, 2025 post titled “The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 33% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6495.15 as this post is written

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of September 2025

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.

Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in which I discussed various facets of this measure.

Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic.  The current figure, last updated on September 5, 2025 depicting data through August 2025, is 102.966 Million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not in Labor Force [LNU05000000], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 5, 2025: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05000000

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6471.89 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $36.53):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-5-25)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 5, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-5-25)

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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $31.46):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-5-25)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed September 5, 2025: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-5-25)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6472.01 as this post is written