The September 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  China's Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Among survey respondents, half said events in China would be a mild drag on the U.S. economy. More than one-third said that despite financial-market fluctuations, the impact on the real economy would be minimal. Three economists said China would be a significant drag, and four said a slowdown there actually would help the American economy.

also:

So modest, in fact, that economists upgraded forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2015. Full-year GDP is expected to expand 2.4% this year, stronger than the previous estimate of 2.2%. But predictions for next year remain muted, with the consensus coming in at 2.6%, down a tick from the 2.7% in the August survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 9.97%; the average response in August was 9.84%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2015:  2.4%

full-year 2016:  2.6%

full-year 2017:  2.5%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2015: 5.0%

December 2016: 4.7%

December 2017: 4.7%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2015: 2.47%

December 2016: 3.09%

December 2017: 3.56%

CPI:

December 2015:  1.0%

December 2016:  2.1%

December 2017:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2015: $48.05

for 12/31/2016: $56.29

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1944.74 as post is written