The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: China's Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Among survey respondents, half said events in China would be a mild drag on the U.S. economy. More than one-third said that despite financial-market fluctuations, the impact on the real economy would be minimal. Three economists said China would be a significant drag, and four said a slowdown there actually would help the American economy.
So modest, in fact, that economists upgraded forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2015. Full-year GDP is expected to expand 2.4% this year, stronger than the previous estimate of 2.2%. But predictions for next year remain muted, with the consensus coming in at 2.6%, down a tick from the 2.7% in the August survey.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 9.97%; the average response in August was 9.84%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.4%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.47%
December 2016: 3.09%
December 2017: 3.56%
December 2015: 1.0%
December 2016: 2.1%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $48.05
for 12/31/2016: $56.29
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1944.74 as post is written