In the September 7, 2015 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “The Bull Still Rules.”
Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 and 2016 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.
Collectively, the strategists expect the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to rise to 2150 by the end of the year, which would mean a gain of more than 10% from Friday’s close of 1921.22.
The average of their 2015 profit expectations for the S&P 500 is $120.25, down from $127 as the year opened. These market seers see S&P earnings rising by 7% in 2016, to $129. (That consensus figure is based on eight estimates, as some strategists haven’t yet established their 2016 price targets or earnings estimates.)
At this point in the year, there isn’t much of a gap in earnings estimates between the Street’s strategists and industry analysts, who are predicting S&P profits of $119. The analysts, typically more optimistic, forecast an 11% gain in 2016, to $132, according to Thomson Reuters.
The article also mentions that among the investment strategists, average expected 2015 GDP growth is 2.5%.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1953.75 as this post is written