Tuesday, October 19, 2010

The October 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published October 15, 2010.  Most of the survey dealt with how the economists view the impact of further Quantitative Easing (QE).

I found a few items of interest in the survey.  Perhaps the most interesting facet was the statement, "Though economists don't expect robust growth, they see just a 20% chance of another recession in the next 12 months."  This 20% figure is very similar to previous months' responses.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 2.58%
for 12/31/2011: 3.55%

for 12/1/2010: 1.2%
for 12/1/2011: 1.8%

Unemployment Rate:
for 12/1/2010: 9.6%
for 12/1/2011: 9.0%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2010: $79.78
for 12/31/2011: $83.18

full-year 2010 : 2.5%
full-year 2011 : 2.8%

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1121.9 as this post is written

No comments:

Post a Comment