Consumer Metrics Institute Readings: From Bad To Worse

This post highlights current readings from the Consumer Metrics Institute.  Previous posts solely concerning the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI) can be found on August 23, July 27 and March 31;  as well CMI data is included in the monthly “Updates On Economic Indicators.”

Here are a couple of charts concerning the CMI's Daily Growth Index, as seen at Doug Short's site on 10/5/10:

(click on charts to enlarge images)


This chart shows the CMI Daily Growth Index vs. GDP and the S&P500.  I would like to highlight two notable items (among the many that I have commented upon in the aforementioned posts of August 23, July 27 and March 31).  First, as one can see the CMI Daily Growth Index is now (at -6.13) below the low experienced in 2008, which I view as highly notable and disconcerting, especially on an "all things considered" basis.  Second, another notable item is how the official (as defined by NBER) recession period, seen in gray, contrasts with the CMI's Daily Growth Index, especially after June 2009, the official end of the recession.


The second chart, as seen below, contrasts the Daily Growth Index's movements and durations from its 2008 and 2010 declines:



As seen in this chart, there are various disconcerting dynamics.  Perhaps most troubling is that the 2010 contraction appears significantly more pernicious than that of the 2008 decline  - with little if any indication that the current contraction will soon reverse.


SPX at 1160.75 as this post is written