Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The December 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011.  The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.”

The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover.

I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don't agree with them:
The economists' predictions reflect a market that is at or near a bottom and showing signs of stabilization. New construction in 2011 is forecast to be mostly steady with a year earlier at around 600,000 homes and climbing to around 720,000 in 2012. But recovery may still be some time away due to several factors.
Goldman Sachs economists Hui Shan and Sven Jari Stehn last week said their model for home prices indicates a bottom some time in 2012. They note that affordability has improved in recent years, helping the market to stabilize but other factors are preventing the sector from taking off.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 23%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

full-year 2011 : 1.7%
full-year 2012:  2.3%
full-year 2013:  2.7%
full-year 2014:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate:
December 2011: 8.8%
December 2012: 8.5%
December 2013: 8.0%
December 2014: 7.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2011: 2.08%
December 2012: 2.75%
December 2013: 3.35%
December 2014:  3.97%

December 2011:  3.3%
December 2012:  2.2%
December 2013:  2.4%
December 2014:  2.5%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2011: $97.47
for 12/31/2012: $98.26

(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1241.30 as this post is written

No comments:

Post a Comment