Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The Current Gold Price And Its Broader Significance


Gold has recently been in a correction (or consolidation) after a very steep rally.

It appears as if Gold is at a critical juncture at present.  As seen in the chart below (which depicts Gold on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2008) Gold, at $1594.60/oz, is currently right below both the 200dma (depicted in red) as well as the rising trendline (recently broken to the downside) since early 2009:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)


From an overall Technical Analysis standpoint, on both daily and weekly viewpoints, Gold appears vulnerable to a (significant) decline.

I have recently written of the broader implications of Gold's price movements.  In one post, that of August 25 ("Gold And Deflationary Pressures") I wrote the following, which I feel is still currently applicable:
I am very closely monitoring Gold as I believe a steep, abnormal correction could serve to (further) indicate deflationary pressures – which of course would have outsized impacts on financial markets, the economy, and economic policy (particularly QE3 or some other large intervention.)
_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1265.43 as this post is written

No comments:

Post a Comment