The January 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: End Emergency Jobless Benefits, Don't Raise Minimum Wage.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

One excerpt I found notable:

On average, real gross domestic product is forecast to grow 2.8% this year, after an estimated 2.6% gain in 2013, with the expansion accelerating over the course of the year. The GDP forecasts are only slightly above the quarterly patterns projected when the survey was last done in each of the past four months. But nearly three-quarters of forecasters think that if the economy surprises this year, it will be by growing faster than they forecast rather than disappoint as it has in previous years. Meanwhile, forecasters put better odds—43%—on breakout growth over the next 12 months than on recession, which they give just an 11% chance of happening.

Another aspect I found notable is in the spreadsheet detail, where there is a question titled "Grading Bernanke."  The question asks "On a scale of 0-100 how would you grade Ben Bernanke's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve?"   Responses and comments are presented.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2013:  2.5%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 6.3%

December 2015: 5.8%

December 2016: 5.5%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.52%

December 2015: 4.01%

December 2016: 4.41%

CPI:

December 2013:  1.3%

December 2014:  1.9%

December 2015:  2.2%

December 2016:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $94.65

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1845.89 as this post is written