Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 29, 2015

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures.

All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of April 29, 2015.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at an all-time low for the periods depicted:

Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.353:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 29, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV

–

Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 5.965:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 29, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V

–

Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.502:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 29, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2106.48 as this post is written

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2015

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short's "Q1 GDP Advance Estimate Surprises to the Downside" post of April 29, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 29, 2015:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2107.79 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 23, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 17) is -1.198.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on April 29, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 24, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 24, 2015 value is -.82:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 29, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on April 29, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 24, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 24 value is .39:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 29, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2102.94 as this post is written

Euro Vs. The U.S. Dollar – April 28, 2015 Update

One of my ongoing concerns is the level and future resiliency of the U.S. Dollar.

For reference, below is a chart that I find notable.  It provides a comparison of the Euro (on the top plot) to the Dollar (found on the bottom plot) on a daily basis over the last five years:

(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2114.00 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March, updated on April 24, 2015. This value is $240,175 ($ Millions):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed April 24, 2015;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2116.42 as this post is written

Median Household Income Chart

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Doug Short, in his April 23, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Declined In March” produced the chart below.  It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted.  As one can see, post-recession real median household income (seen in the blue line since 2009) is especially worrisome.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

–

As Doug mentions in his aforementioned post:

As the excellent data from Sentier Research makes clear, the mainstream U.S. household was struggling before the Great Recession. At this point, real household incomes are in worse shape than they were four years ago when the recession ended.

Among other items seen in his blog post is a chart depicting each of the two (nominal and real household incomes) data series’ percent change over time since 2000.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2118.80 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through March 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following:

M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.
Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 24, 2015 depicting data through March 2015, with value $13,163.0 Billion:

Here is the “MZM Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2015:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMSL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 23, 2015, depicting data through March 2015, with value $11,845.60 Billion:

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2015:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2SL

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2116.27 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – April 23, 2015 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

“Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

“A Special Note On Our Economic Situation”

“Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness”

“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis”

“Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?”

“Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?”

“The Next Crash And Its Significance”

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through April 17, 2015, with a last value of 17826.30):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2112.93 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 16, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 10) is -1.154.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on April 22, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 17, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 17, 2015 value is -.81:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on April 22, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 17, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 17 value is .42:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2096.24 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of April 17, 2015:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

from page 25:

 

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2097.29 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings - Estimates For Years 2014 Through 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of April 21, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2013 value is $109.68/share:

Year 2014 estimate:

$118.78/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$119.30/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$134.62/share

Year 2017 estimate:

$149.02/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2097.29 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2015 & 2016 – As Of April 17, 2015

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 17, 2015:

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.02/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $110.95

Year 2016 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $134.27/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $125.36/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2100.67 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2015 – Notable Excerpts

On April 8, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 57, down from 60 in the fourth quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this April 8 Press Release include:

CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions was more positive than last quarter. Approximately 55 percent claim conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from 52 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. However, business leaders’ assessment of conditions in their own industries declined. Now, just 35 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, compared with 43 percent last quarter.

CEOs were more pessimistic regarding the short-term outlook. About 38 percent of business leaders anticipate economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 49 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries, however, were down moderately, with 34 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement, compared to 36 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2015.   Notable excerpts from the March 3 release, titled “Modest Uptick in Business Optimism, Especially for Investment, but Still Below Economy's Full Potential”:

The Business Roundtable released its first quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Index, which provides a picture of the future direction of the U.S. economy based upon CEOs’ plans for sales, capital spending and hiring. The overall Index is up from the fourth quarter of 2014, but has been in the same general range for the past year and a half.  The six-month outlook for sales hit a three-year high this quarter.

CEOs said they expect 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.8 percent, slightly below consensus estimates, but a 0.4 percentage point increase over their projection from the fourth quarter of 2014.

also:

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index – a composite index of CEO plans for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment – rebounded in the first quarter of 2015 to 90.8 from 85.1 in the fourth quarter of 2014. The long-term average of the Index is 80.5.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2102.31 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 20, 2015:

–

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of April 17, 2015 (incorporating data through April 10, 2015) the WLI was at 132.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at -1.4%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of April 17, 2015, titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Update“:

–

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 11, 2015:

–

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the April 17, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 121.4 and the CEI was at 112.0 in March.

An excerpt from the April 17 release:

“Although the leading economic index still points to a moderate expansion in economic activity, its slowing growth rate over recent months suggests weaker growth may be ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Building permits was the weakest component this month, but average working hours and manufacturing new orders have also slowed the LEI’s growth over the last six months.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of April 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Remains in Growth Territory“:

 

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2103.03 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 17, 2015 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of April 17, 2015 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the April 17 release, indicating data through April 10, 2015.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

–

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

–

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

 

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2076.13 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 9, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 3) is -1.072.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on April 15, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 10, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 10, 2015 value is -.79:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 15, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on April 15, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 10, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 10 value is .49:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 15, 2015:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2106.63 as this post is written