Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 24, 2015:
As of August 21, 2015 (incorporating data through August 14, 2015) the WLI was at 131.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.4%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of August 21, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: 'Shrinking Trade Pie'“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 8, 2015:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the August 20, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.3 and the CEI was at 112.5 in July.
An excerpt from the August 20 release:
“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in July, after four months of strong gains. Despite a sharp drop in housing permits, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Current conditions, measured by the coincident economic index, have been rising moderately but steadily, driven by rising employment and income, and even industrial production has improved in recent months.
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of August 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Sees Fractional Decline in July“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1895.16 as this post is written