Thursday, April 13, 2017

The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 13, 2017.  The headline is “Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
A growing number of forecasters are beginning to reconsider their bullish outlook for the U.S. economy as doubts grow over the extent to which President Donald Trump will be able to implement his agenda.
Growth forecasts for the first quarter have come down. In December, the average forecast called for 2.3% growth in the first quarter. That had fallen to 1.9% in March and dipped again to 1.4% in this month’s survey.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 38%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 14.41%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 61 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on April 7, 2017 to April 11, 2017.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2017:  2.3%
full-year 2018:  2.5%
full-year 2019:  2.1%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2017: 4.4%
December 2018: 4.3%
December 2019: 4.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.84%
December 2018: 3.32%
December 2019: 3.65%
December 2017:  2.4%
December 2018:  2.4%
December 2019:  2.3%
Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2017: $54.42
for 12/31/2018: $56.40
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2338.52 as post is written

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