The September 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The September 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 7, 2017.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Most economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey expected the Federal Reserve would next raise short-term interest rates in December, and most said Janet Yellen should get a second term as the central bank’s chairwoman.

Almost three quarters of the business and academic economists surveyed in the latest poll said President Donald Trump should nominate Ms. Yellen to stay on after her current term expires in early February. Several economists said that keeping her on the job would provide continuity and reassure markets during uncertain times.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 16.08%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 15.00%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 56 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted September 1-5.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.4%

full-year 2019:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.3%

December 2018: 4.1%

December 2019: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.49%

December 2018: 3.02%

December 2019: 3.28%

CPI:

December 2017:  1.7%

December 2018:  2.1%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $48.94

for 12/31/2018: $51.15

for 12/31/2019: $52.26

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2463.26 as post is written