The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2019.  The headline is “President Trump’s Criticism of the Fed Hasn’t Shifted Perception of Its Independence, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists said they expected the Fed’s policy rate would average 1.99% at the end of the year, suggesting forecasters were largely split between those who saw the Fed cutting rates once this year and those who saw two rate cuts.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.10%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 2% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 30.07%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 53 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 5 – July 9, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.75%

full-year 2021:  1.84%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.61%

December 2020: 3.84%

December 2021: 4.06%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.18%

December 2020: 2.38%

December 2021: 2.58%

CPI:

December 2019:  2.03%

December 2020:  1.99%

December 2021:  2.18%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $57.97

for 12/31/2020: $57.83

for 12/31/2021: $60.50

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3014.30 as this post is written