The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The March 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2022:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .51:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed March 21, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .35:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed March 21, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of March 17, 2022, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through March 12, 2022, with last value .73263:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the March 18, 2022 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in February” the LEI was at 119.9 in February, the CEI was at 108.0 in February, and the LAG was n/a.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI rose slightly in February, partially reversing January’s decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, the latest results do not reflect the full impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could lower the trajectory for the US LEI and signal slower-than-anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year. The global economic impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices—coupled with rising interest rates, existing labor shortages, and high inflation—all pose headwinds to US economic growth. While the Omicron wave and its economic impact waned in recent months, the potential for new COVID-19 variants remains. Amid these risks, The Conference Board revised its growth projection for the US economy down to 3.0 percent year-over-year GDP growth in 2022— still well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4445.91 as this post is written
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