On March 21, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this March 21, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index: Slight Dip Amid Global Uncertainty; CEOs Responding to Historically High Demand with Strong Hiring, Investment Plans“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. The overall CEO Economic Outlook Index declined 9 points from last quarter to 115 but remains well above its long-run average.
also:
In their second estimate of 2022 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 3.9% growth for the year.
On February 10, 2022, The Conference Board released the Q1 2022 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 57, down from the previous reading of 65. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this February 10, 2022 Press Release include:
Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions declined in Q1 2022:
- 34% of CEOs reported economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 61% in Q4 2021.
- 35% said conditions were worse, up from 19%.
CEOs were less optimistic about conditions in their own industries in Q1 2022:
- 40% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, down from 58%.
- 22% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 18%.
Future Conditions
Expectations about the short-term economic outlook weakened in Q1 2022:
- 50% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 61% in Q4.
- 23% expected conditions to worsen, up from 13%.
CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries moderated in Q1:
- 58% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down from 61%.
- 13% expected conditions to worsen, up from 8%.
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4523.91 as this post is written
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