Thursday, April 14, 2022

Disturbing Charts (Update 45)

The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.

I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last update March 17, 2022):

Housing Starts

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 14, 2022.

The Federal Deficit (last updated April 1, 2022):

Federal Deficit

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, April 14, 2022.

Federal Net Outlays (last updated April 1, 2022):

Federal Net Outlays

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 14, 2022.

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated March 30, 2022):

ASLPITAX Percent Change From Year Ago

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, April 14, 2022.

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 8, 2022):

Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks Percent Change From Year Ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, April 14, 2022.

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 8, 2022):

Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks Percent Change From Year Ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 14, 2022.

M1 Money Multiplier Proxy:

Money Multiplier Proxy

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, April 14, 2022.

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated April 1, 2022):

Median Duration of Unemployment

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, April 14, 2022.

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated April 1, 2022):

Labor Force Participation Rate

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, April 14, 2022.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated March 21, 2022):

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 14, 2022.

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4418.33 as this post is written

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