The June 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 19, 2022. The headline is “Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of recession, now putting it at 44% in the next 12 months, a level usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recessions.

The likelihood of a recession has increased rapidly this year as inflationary pressures remained strong and the Federal Reserve took increasingly aggressive action to tame them. Economists on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28% in the Journal’s last survey in April and at 18% in January.

Since the Journal began asking the question in mid-2005, a 44% recession probability is seldom seen outside of an actual recession. In December 2007, the month that the 2007-to-2009 recession began, economists assigned a 38% probability. In February 2020, when the last recession began, they assigned a 26% probability.

As noted above, and also seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 44%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 28%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 53 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted June 16 – June 17. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  1.28%

full-year 2023:  1.36%

full-year 2024:  n/a

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.70%

December 2023: 4.19%

December 2024: n/a

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: n/a

December 2023: n/a

December 2024: n/a

CPI:

December 2022:  6.97%

December 2023:  3.23%

December 2024:  n/a

Core PCE:

full-year 2022:  n/a

full-year 2023:  n/a

full-year 2024:  n/a

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3768.29 as this post is written