The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 21, 2022:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .01:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 21, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .20:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of June 17, 2022, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through June 11, 2022, with last value .202692:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the June 17, 2022 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Again in May” the LEI was 118.3 in May, the CEI was 108.8 in May, and the LAG was 112.9 in May.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI fell again in May, fueled by tumbling stock prices, a slowdown in housing construction, and gloomier consumer expectations,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The index is still near a historic high, but the US LEI suggests weaker economic activity is likely in the near term—and tighter monetary policy is poised to dampen economic growth even further.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of June 17, 2022:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3756.12 as this post is written
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