On June 13, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this June 13, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q2 CEO Economic Outlook Index Declines; Expectations and Plans Decelerate Amid Continued Geopolitical, Global Economic Uncertainty“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q2 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. The overall CEO Economic Outlook Index declined 19 points from last quarter to 96 but remains well above its long-run average of 84 and the expansion or contraction threshold of 50.
also:
In their third estimate of 2022 U.S. real GDP growth, CEOs projected 3.2% growth for the year.
On May 18, 2022, The Conference Board released the Q2 2022 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 42, down from the previous reading of 57. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this May 18, 2022 Press Release include:
Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions declined in Q2 2022:
- 14% of CEOs reported economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 34% in Q1 2022.
- 61% said conditions were worse, up from 35%.
CEOs were more pessimistic about conditions in their own industries in Q2 2022:
- 24% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, down from 40%.
- 37% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 22%.
Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook weakened in Q2:
- 19% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 50% in Q1.
- 60% expected conditions to worsen, up from 23%.
CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries declined in Q2:
- 28% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down from 58%.
- 34% expected conditions to worsen, up from 13%.
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3674.84 as this post is written
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