As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September 2025) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 25, 2025 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index…“:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Advisor Perspectives had a post of November 25, 2025 (“Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: November 2025“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
–
–
While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on November 25, 2025 depicting data through October 2025, with a value of $19,004.2 Billion:
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.4%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 25, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on November 25, 2025, depicting data through October 2025, with a value of $22,298.1 Billion:
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.6%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 25, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.
There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.
I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:
My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.
For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through November 21, 2025 with a last value of 46,245.41):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:
Real GDP: (annual average level)
full-year 2025: 1.9%
full-year 2026: 1.8%
full-year 2027: 2.1%
full-year 2028: 1.8%
Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)
for 2025: 4.2%
for 2026: 4.5%
for 2027: 4.4%
for 2028: 4.3%
–
Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 22.9%, 24.0%, 26.3%, 24.8%, and 23.6% for each of the quarters from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026, respectively.
As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2034) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each. Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE. Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.2% to 3.2% range.
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of November 14, 2025:
from page 31:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
from page 32:
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 7, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; and the year 2024 value is $242.73/share:
Year 2025 estimate:
$270.53/share
Year 2026 estimate:
$307.86/share
Year 2027 estimate:
$350.98/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 12, 2025:
Year 2025 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $264.11/share
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $244.51/share
Year 2026 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $305.51/share
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $281.78/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.
Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written. While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.
Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]
As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through November 7, 2025 with a last price of 6728.80), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.
Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.
The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005. There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low. As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
–
This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980. I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance. The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.
As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.
(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – October 31, 2025:
–
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – October 31, 2025:
–
The S&P500, from 1925 – October 31, 2025:
–
The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – October 31, 2025:
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
