The February 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2013.  The headline is “Economists See 2.4% GDP Growth in 2013.”

Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

Two excerpts from the article:

For 2013, the economists again expect the economy to grow 2.4%, but they see more underlying strength this year.

also:

There is a better chance of a surprise that things are better rather than worse than expected in 2013, said most of the surveyed 52 economists, not all of whom answer every question. Last year, the majority saw more downside risks. On average, the economists in the latest survey put a 24% chance on the economy growing a faster-than-expected 3% this year, compared with 17% odds of a recession.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2012:  1.7%

full-year 2013:  2.4%

full-year 2014:  2.9%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.4%

December 2014: 6.9%

December 2015: 6.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.4%

December 2014: 3.02%

December 2015: 3.59%

CPI:

December 2013:  2.1%

December 2014:  2.2%

December 2015:  2.5%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $95.72

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1509.39 as this post is written