Monday, December 14, 2015

2016 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 14, 2015 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled "Stocks Have Room to Rise 10% in 2016, Market Strategists Say.”
Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2016 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.
A couple of excerpts:
Based on their mean forecast, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will end next year at 2220, an increase of 10% from Friday’s close of 2012.
The Street’s seers expect S&P 500 earnings per share to rise just 5% next year, from this year’s estimated $118. Their mean forecast for 2016 is $123.50. Last December, these seers were more upbeat, expecting earnings to climb 8% in 2015. Industry analysts typically are more optimistic than strategists, and that is the case this year, as last. The analysts anticipate S&P earnings of $128 in 2016, representing an 8.5% increase over current-year targets.
The article also mentions that among the investment strategists, average expected 2016 GDP growth is 2.5%.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2012.37 as this post is written

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