The March 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 16, 2017. The headline is “WSJ Survey Of Economists See Growth Climbing in 2017 and 2018, Then Dissipating.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
On average, forecasters expect 2.4% growth in 2017, compared with 2.2% prior to the election. Their increase for 2018 was more significant. They now expect 2.5% growth that year, compared with 2% in pre-election forecasts.
Most remain optimistic for now. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of 61 academic, financial and business economists was conducted from March 10 to March 13, and found that 62% believe it is more likely growth will outperform than underperform.By contrast, just 23% see risks to the downside. The odds of a recession in the next 12 months are placed at just 14%, down from 20% during the same month last year.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%. For reference, the average response in February's survey was 15.09%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.9%
full-year 2017: 2.4%
full-year 2018: 2.5%
full-year 2019: 2.1%
December 2017: 4.5%
December 2018: 4.4%
December 2019: 4.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.94%
December 2018: 3.39%
December 2019: 3.65%
December 2017: 2.4%
December 2018: 2.4%
December 2019: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2017: $54.70
for 12/31/2018: $57.31
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2381.38 as post is written