I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Forecasters in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey have raised their assessments of the risk facing the U.S. economy. For the first time since the presidential election, a majority of economists in the survey are concerned the economy could do worse than forecast.As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%. For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 15.27%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey occurred on June 2, 2017 to June 6, 2017.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2017: 2.3%
full-year 2018: 2.4%
full-year 2019: 2.0%
December 2017: 4.3%
December 2018: 4.1%
December 2019: 4.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.66%
December 2018: 3.20%
December 2019: 3.57%
December 2017: 2.1%
December 2018: 2.3%
December 2019: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2017: $50.95
for 12/31/2018: $53.31
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2426.92 as post is written