The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Some 35% of economists expect the next recession will start in 2021, up from 30.9% last month’s survey, while 29.7% expect one to start in 2022. Just 10.8% see a recession starting this year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 23.97%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 7 – February 11, 2020.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  1.88%

full-year 2021:  1.94%

full-year 2022:  1.91%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.60%

December 2021: 3.81%

December 2022: 4.01%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 1.98%

December 2021: 2.20%

December 2022: 2.44%

CPI:

December 2020:  1.92%

December 2021:  2.15%

December 2022:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2020: $54.75

for 12/31/2021: $56.00

for 12/31/2022: $56.02

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3376.38 as this post is written