On September 12, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals Continued U.S. Slowdown“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. The overall Index declined 12 points from last quarter to 84, its long-run average and well above the expansion or contraction threshold of 50.
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In their fourth estimate of 2022 U.S. real GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.3% growth for the year.
On August 17, 2022, The Conference Board released the Q3 2022 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 34, down from the previous reading of 42. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this August 17, 2022 Press Release include:
The Q3 survey asked CEOs to describe the economic conditions they are preparing to face over the next 12-18 months. An overwhelming majority—81%—said they were preparing for a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillover, while only 7% said they do not expect a recession. Thus far, however, CEOs do not seem to be experiencing the recessionary conditions that typified recent contractions. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past three months.
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Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions deteriorated further in Q3:
- Just 6% of CEOs reported economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 14% in Q2 2022.
- 77% said conditions were worse, up from 61%.
CEOs remained pessimistic about conditions in their own industries in Q3:
- 25% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, up slightly from 24%.
- Conversely, 48% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 37%.
Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook weakened in Q3:
- Just 7% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 19% in Q2.
- 73% expected conditions to worsen, up from 60%.
CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries declined further in Q3:
- 20% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down from 28%.
- 48% expect conditions to worsen, up from 34%.
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3891.24 as this post is written
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