Monday, April 16, 2012

The April 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2012.  The headline is “Economists Don't See Fed Action This Year.”

The commentary largely focuses on the possibilities and related issues with regard to whether the Federal Reserve will enact "another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012."

Per the article:
Thirty-six of the 51 economists surveyed, not all of whom answer every question, say the central bank will refrain from another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012. The number who expect no action is up from 30 in the January survey.
Another notable excerpt, concerning unemployment:
Meanwhile, a disappointing March employment report didn't alter expectations of gradual improvement in the job market as the year goes on. Economists see the unemployment rate falling to 7.9% by December from the current 8.2%, as the economy adds an average of 190,000 jobs a month over the next year. The jobless rate hasn't been below 8% since January 2009.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 16%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

full-year 2012:  2.5%
full-year 2013:  2.6%
full-year 2014:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.4%
December 2014:  6.8%

10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 2.55%
December 2013: 3.19%
December 2014:  3.81%

December 2012:  2.4%
December 2013:  2.4%
December 2014:  2.6%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $104.06

(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1370.26 as this post is written

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