On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief tenth update to that post.
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature.
I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other highly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.
My analysis continues to indicate that there are many reasons for tremendous concern, as seen in almost innumerable fundamental economic, financial-market, and proprietary measures. Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems. While I believe that the European debt problems are gravely serious and have broader implications (as explained in the November 17, 2011 post "Europe And Contagion – Broader Implications"), an array of U.S. economic problems also exist.
Predicting the timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has reached a level at which a stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – has reached a level at which a near-term crash is a substantial concern.
(note: the “next crash” has outsized significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, "The Next Crash And Its Significance")
As reference, below is a one-year daily chart of the S&P500, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels. The current price is 1378.42:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1378.42 as this post is written